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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.